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Analyzer

Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit

2.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score46.8%Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 46.8%Based on 2.4M games
0%46.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 46.8%
Outcome Distribution
45.4%2.8%51.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...f5
Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit
Analyzen=2.4M
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.8%

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 46.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 46.8%), based on 2.4M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.5% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.3% win rate (72,865 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.9% win rate (195,743 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.4% win rate (367,687 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.9% win rate (539,311 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.8% win rate (583,591 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.6% win rate (429,413 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.8% win rate (177,432 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.6% win rate (51,877 games)
  • 2500+: 50.7% win rate (3,688 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.5% win rate (730 games)
  • Bullet: 45.1% win rate (599,207 games)
  • Blitz: 45.5% win rate (1,261,984 games)
  • Rapid: 45.4% win rate (541,200 games)
  • Classical: 45.0% win rate (18,486 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (24,152 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (34,780 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (13,830 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (67 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (104 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (56,585 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (99,276 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (39,377 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (401 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (185 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (89,474 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (193,261 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (82,914 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (1,853 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (264 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (111,586 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (297,621 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (124,826 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (5,014 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (89 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (110,751 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (317,852 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (147,882 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (7,017 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 72.4% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (95,473 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (228,643 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (101,791 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (3,474 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 28.8% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (69,263 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (79,468 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (28,064 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (622 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (38,542 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (10,807 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (2,486 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (3,381 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (276 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate?

The Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.7% win rate for white (3.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.5%) outperforms Classical (45.0%) by 8.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit?

The Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 196K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.2%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 368K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 539K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.7%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 584K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.4%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 429K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 177K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.4%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 53.5% (90% CI: 50.5%-56.5%) win rate for white (730 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 45.1% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.2%) win rate for white (599K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.4%-45.6%) win rate for white (1.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.5%) win rate for white (541K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.6%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

Is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit is slightly favors black with a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.