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Analyzer

Italian Game: Jerome Gambit

263K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.4%Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 50.6%Based on 263K games
0%50.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 50.6%
Outcome Distribution
48.9%3.0%48.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Bxf7+
Italian Game: Jerome Gambit
Analyzen=263K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 50.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.2% and 50.6%), based on 263K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.5 · Trap factor: +8.6 · n=263K

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 49% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.6% win rate (11,502 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.1% win rate (30,130 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.7% win rate (55,265 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.1% win rate (65,159 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.9% win rate (55,383 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (30,748 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.0% win rate (11,824 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.6% win rate (2,761 games)
  • 2500+: 55.1% win rate (435 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 57.8% win rate (1,412 games)
  • Bullet: 53.7% win rate (86,298 games)
  • Blitz: 47.4% win rate (130,206 games)
  • Rapid: 44.1% win rate (43,364 games)
  • Classical: 42.8% win rate (1,927 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (4,045 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (4,981 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (2,417 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.5% expected score (164 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (9,552 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (14,799 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (5,557 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (58 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (539 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (14,998 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (29,011 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (10,020 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (697 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.3% expected score (473 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (17,431 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (35,192 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (11,536 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (527 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (132 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (17,221 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (28,271 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (9,233 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (526 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (41 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (13,489 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (13,509 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (3,633 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (76 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (6,825 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (4,027 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (928 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (2,307 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.2% expected score (430 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Jerome Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate?

The Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 263K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Jerome Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 55.1% win rate for white (435 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (57.8%) outperforms Classical (42.8%) by 15.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit?

The Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 55.1% (90% CI: 51.2%-59.0%) win rate for white, based on 435 Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 57.8% (90% CI: 55.7%-60.0%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.9%) win rate for white (86K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.6%) win rate for white (130K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 44.1% (90% CI: 43.7%-44.5%) win rate for white (43K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a 42.8% (90% CI: 41.0%-44.7%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

Is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Jerome Gambit is statistically balanced with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.