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Analyzer

Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined

278K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.4%Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.5%Based on 278K games
0%47.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.5%
Outcome Distribution
45.9%2.9%51.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.a4
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined
Analyzen=278K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.9%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 47.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.2% and 47.5%), based on 278K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -5.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.6% win rate (4,788 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.8% win rate (19,015 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.3% win rate (44,793 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.3% win rate (63,810 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.8% win rate (63,131 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.2% win rate (47,538 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.0% win rate (24,934 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.3% win rate (9,109 games)
  • 2500+: 43.5% win rate (1,226 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Blitz (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (9 games)
  • Bullet: 46.6% win rate (67,350 games)
  • Blitz: 45.5% win rate (158,702 games)
  • Rapid: 46.0% win rate (50,757 games)
  • Classical: 48.7% win rate (1,526 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (2,128 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (2,066 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (590 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (6,876 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (9,811 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (2,302 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (11,703 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (26,013 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (6,969 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (107 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (12,411 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (37,801 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (13,284 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (308 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (11,953 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (36,568 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (13,998 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (611 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (10,108 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (27,827 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (9,237 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (366 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (7,075 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (14,275 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (3,494 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.0% expected score (90 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (4,205 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (4,022 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (868 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (891 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (319 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Continuations (3)
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation
44.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Lange Variation
37.2%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation
45.9%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 278K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 46.8% win rate for white (19K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (48.7%) outperforms Blitz (45.5%) by 3.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.4%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 64K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 48K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 43.5% (90% CI: 41.2%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.9%) win rate for white (67K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.7%) win rate for white (159K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.4%) win rate for white (51K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a 48.7% (90% CI: 46.6%-50.8%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined is slightly favors black with a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.