Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense
325K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.3%.
Measured over 325K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 325K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 325K
- Best context
- 49.6% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 43.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.1%
- Draws
- 3.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 45.5%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (78 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (2,612 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (5,604 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (2,181 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.9% expected score (33 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (177 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (4,605 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (6,762 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (2,015 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (76 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (382 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (9,091 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (9,659 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (2,355 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.8% expected score (132 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (960 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (16,598 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (17,073 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (2,828 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (182 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (1,388 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (28,883 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (26,238 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (3,696 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (153 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (1,481 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (41,875 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (25,699 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (3,176 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (86 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (835 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (39,959 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (15,003 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (1,212 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (169 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (34,058 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (7,005 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (275 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (9,428 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (531 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense scores 47.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.0% and 47.3% — from 325K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 325K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate?
Playing the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 325K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense perform best?
The Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.0% (72K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.6% in Blitz (114K games) against 46.6% in Rapid (18K games).
How sharp is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense?
The Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 42.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 72K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.3%, draws 5.6% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 10.0K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.0%, draws 2.0% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 187K Lichess games.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 114K Lichess games.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 43.2%, draws 7.0% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 691 Lichess games.
Is the Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense a good opening?
The Hungarian Opening: Dutch Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.2% of its games and loses 51.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.