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Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation

444K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.6%Range (90% confident): 49.5% – 49.8%Based on 444K games
0%49.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.5% – 49.8%
Outcome Distribution
45.9%7.5%46.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...c5
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation
Analyzen=444K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.5%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 49.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.5% and 49.8%), based on 444K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.8% win rate (491 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.2% win rate (2,554 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.5% win rate (8,179 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.4% win rate (23,604 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.2% win rate (56,235 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.9% win rate (104,948 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (118,110 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.5% win rate (103,446 games)
  • 2500+: 46.9% win rate (26,492 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.8% win rate (90 games)
  • Bullet: 47.0% win rate (147,746 games)
  • Blitz: 45.8% win rate (247,414 games)
  • Rapid: 43.2% win rate (46,416 games)
  • Classical: 41.1% win rate (2,393 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (263 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (194 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (1,233 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (1,123 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (198 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (3,536 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (3,857 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (767 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (8,223 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (12,591 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (2,657 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (117 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (15,744 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (32,793 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (7,251 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (426 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.7% expected score (30 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (26,622 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (62,693 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (14,581 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (1,022 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (34,349 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (69,279 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (13,881 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (590 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (40,510 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (56,590 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (6,204 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.8% expected score (138 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (17,266 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (8,294 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (843 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (89 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Continuations (2)
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Kramnik's Line
47.1%
Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation, Pawn Grab Line
65.8%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 444K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.5% win rate for white (103K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.0%) outperforms Classical (41.1%) by 5.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 92.5 (decisive), meaning 92.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 40.1%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 491 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 43.6%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 105K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 118K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 103K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 15.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.2%) win rate for white (148K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.6%-45.9%) win rate for white (247K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 42.8%-43.6%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.9%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation has a 41.1% (90% CI: 39.4%-42.7%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.7%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Exchange Variation, Modern Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.