French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit
4.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.1%.
Measured over 4.8K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.8K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 4.8K
- Best context
- 53.6% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 52.9% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.5% at 0-999, 55.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (137 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.0% expected score (85 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (103 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.6% expected score (104 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 69.2% expected score (48 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (106 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (86 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (83 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 37.6% expected score (188 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (96 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (140 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (334 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (101 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (238 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (623 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (118 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (333 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (882 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (85 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (336 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (407 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (38 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (57 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (27 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit scores 52.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.8% and 53.1% — from 4.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 4.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 4.8K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 54.0% (1.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.2% in Blitz (2.8K games) against 49.4% in Rapid (713 games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 37.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 57.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.9%. It rests on 235 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 41.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 240 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 250 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 46.8%, draws 2.0% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 376 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 52.3%, draws 2.0% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 583 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 989 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 782 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 53.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 713 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Winckelmann-Riemer Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 50.0% of its games and loses 46.1%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.