14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 47.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.3% and 47.6%), based on 14K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 11% → 49%
Best in Classical (50%), worst in Blitz (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.3%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.3% win rate for white (1.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (44.7%) outperforms Classical (49.6%) by -4.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 39.7% (90% CI: 34.3%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 214 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 40.5% (90% CI: 38.2%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 41.6% (90% CI: 40.4%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 44.7% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.4%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 44.7% (90% CI: 43.4%-46.0%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 43.6% (90% CI: 42.7%-44.4%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 44.8% (90% CI: 41.6%-48.0%) win rate for white (652 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.0%.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line is slightly favors black with a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.3%-44.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.