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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation

60K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score46.8%Range (90% confident): 46.5% – 47.2%Based on 60K games
0%46.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.5% – 47.2%
Outcome Distribution
44.3%5.0%50.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Nbc6
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation
Analyzen=60K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.0%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 46.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.5% and 47.2%), based on 60K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 23.1% win rate (18 games)
  • 1200-1399: 39.8% win rate (55 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.5% win rate (343 games)
  • 1600-1799: 41.4% win rate (1,938 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.8% win rate (8,357 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.6% win rate (19,494 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.7% win rate (24,124 games)
  • 2500+: 48.9% win rate (5,840 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Bullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 43.3% win rate (17,441 games)
  • Blitz: 44.7% win rate (38,529 games)
  • Rapid: 45.7% win rate (3,964 games)
  • Classical: 45.4% win rate (233 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.5% expected score (133 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (158 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 67.6% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (624 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (1,168 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (123 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (1,948 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (5,712 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (623 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (73 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (3,837 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (14,101 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (1,465 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (91 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (7,232 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (15,351 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (1,505 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (3,624 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (2,021 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (191 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Continuations (2)
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line
45.5%
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation
51.5%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 60K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.9% win rate for white (5.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (45.7%) outperforms Classical (45.4%) by 0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 45.1%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 343 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 41.4% (90% CI: 39.5%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 40.9%-42.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 42.0%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 42.6%-43.9%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.1%) win rate for white (39K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.0%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.6%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 40.1%-50.8%) win rate for white (233 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.7%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.3% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.