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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation

2.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score53.6%Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 55.4%Based on 2.1K games
0%53.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 55.4%
Outcome Distribution
51.5%4.2%44.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
10.Kd1
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation
Analyzen=2.1K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation has a 53.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.9% and 55.4%), based on 2.1K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 57%

1000
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1400-1599: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.9% win rate (38 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.8% win rate (270 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (653 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.0% win rate (818 games)
  • 2500+: 56.5% win rate (339 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (54%), worst in Classical (27%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 54.4% win rate (551 games)
  • Blitz: 50.8% win rate (1,464 games)
  • Rapid: 46.9% win rate (102 games)
  • Classical: 27.3% win rate (4 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399—————
1400-1599———
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (66 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (179 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (85 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (538 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.2% expected score (123 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (651 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (266 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 56.5% win rate for white (339 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.4%) outperforms Rapid (46.9%) by 7.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 36.9%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 270 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 47.4%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 653 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.1%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 818 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation has a 56.5% (90% CI: 52.1%-60.9%) win rate for white, based on 339 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-57.9%) win rate for white (551 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-52.9%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 38.9%-54.9%) win rate for white (102 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Paoli Variation is statistically balanced with a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-53.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.