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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line

33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score48.7%Range (90% confident): 48.2% – 49.1%Based on 33K games
0%48.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.2% – 49.1%
Outcome Distribution
45.5%6.3%48.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
10.Ne2
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line
Analyzen=33K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.3%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line has a 48.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.2% and 49.1%), based on 33K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.5% win rate (4 games)
  • 1000-1199: 33.3% win rate (15 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.9% win rate (24 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.9% win rate (77 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.4% win rate (527 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.4% win rate (3,310 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.2% win rate (10,371 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.4% win rate (14,595 games)
  • 2500+: 47.5% win rate (3,775 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (47%), worst in Classical (41%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.2% win rate (9,128 games)
  • Blitz: 45.5% win rate (21,291 games)
  • Rapid: 46.9% win rate (2,141 games)
  • Classical: 41.2% win rate (138 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199———
1200-1399—
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 34.2% expected score (27 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (157 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (326 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 31.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (787 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (2,277 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (213 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (1,857 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (7,761 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (696 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (57 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (3,671 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (9,840 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (1,059 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (2,596 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (1,047 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.8% expected score (122 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 33K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 47.5% win rate for white (3.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (46.9%) outperforms Classical (41.2%) by 5.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line has a 43.4% (90% CI: 39.9%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 527 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line has a 43.4% (90% CI: 42.0%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.4%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.7%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 11.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.0%) win rate for white (9.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.0%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.1%-48.7%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.1%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line has a 41.2% (90% CI: 34.5%-48.1%) win rate for white (138 Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.0%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Main Line is statistically balanced with a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.