French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack
2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
57.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.9%.
Measured over 2.2K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.2K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.2K
- Best context
- 57.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.1%
- Draws
- 6.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 74.3% at 1200-1399, 66.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 63.8% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (38 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (107 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (96 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (453 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (355 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (747 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.9% expected score (31 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.7% expected score (111 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (175 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack scores 57.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.5% and 58.9% — from 2.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack, White wins 53.7%, draws 6.9% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 60.0% (288 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 57.4% in Blitz (1.5K games) against 55.8% in Rapid (76 games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 54.9%, draws 8.0% and loses 37.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 167 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 53.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 572 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.1%, draws 7.5% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 55.4%, draws 9.2% and loses 35.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.0%. It rests on 288 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 54.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 605 Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 53.6%, draws 7.4% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.7% of its games and loses 39.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.