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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack

2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score57.2%Range (90% confident): 55.5% – 58.9%Based on 2.2K games
0%57.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.5% – 58.9%
Outcome Distribution
53.7%6.9%39.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Qh5
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack
Analyzen=2.2K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.9%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack has a 57.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.5% and 58.9%), based on 2.2K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 78% → 55%

1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1200-1399: 77.8% win rate (3 games)
  • 1400-1599: 60.0% win rate (6 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.3% win rate (19 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.9% win rate (167 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.3% win rate (572 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.1% win rate (1,134 games)
  • 2500+: 55.4% win rate (288 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (58%), worst in Rapid (51%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 54.0% win rate (605 games)
  • Blitz: 53.6% win rate (1,500 games)
  • Rapid: 51.0% win rate (76 games)
  • Classical: 57.9% win rate (8 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399———
1400-1599———
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 63.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (107 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (96 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (453 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (355 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (747 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.7% expected score (111 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (175 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.0%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.1% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (53.6%) outperforms Rapid (51.0%) by 2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack has a 54.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-61.2%) win rate for white, based on 167 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack has a 53.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 572 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack has a 53.1% (90% CI: 50.7%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack has a 55.4% (90% CI: 50.6%-60.2%) win rate for white, based on 288 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack has a 54.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-57.3%) win rate for white (605 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack has a 53.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-55.8%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Exchange Variation, Canal Attack is statistically favors white with a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.0%-55.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.