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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense

2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score56.8%Range (90% confident): 55.0% – 58.5%Based on 2.2K games
0%56.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.0% – 58.5%
Outcome Distribution
53.5%6.5%40.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.f4
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense
Analyzen=2.2K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.5%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense has a 56.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.0% and 58.5%), based on 2.2K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 71% → 59%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • 1400-1599: 28.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.4% win rate (35 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.5% win rate (180 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.1% win rate (630 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.9% win rate (1,058 games)
  • 2500+: 59.3% win rate (264 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (59%), worst in Classical (27%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 53.1% win rate (649 games)
  • Blitz: 53.4% win rate (1,451 games)
  • Rapid: 59.0% win rate (79 games)
  • Classical: 27.3% win rate (4 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (118 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (135 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (467 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (258 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (770 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.4% expected score (191 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 76.2% expected score (73 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense has a 53.5% (90% CI: 51.7%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 59.3% win rate for white (264 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (53.4%) outperforms Bullet (53.1%) by 0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense has a 45.5% (90% CI: 39.4%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 180 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 47.8%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 630 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense has a 54.9% (90% CI: 52.4%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense has a 59.3% (90% CI: 54.3%-64.2%) win rate for white, based on 264 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-56.3%) win rate for white (649 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense has a 53.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-55.5%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense is statistically favors white with a 53.5% (90% CI: 51.7%-55.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.