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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation

24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.0%Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 54.6%Based on 24K games
0%54.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 54.6%
Outcome Distribution
52.1%3.8%44.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Qg4
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation
Analyzen=24K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 54.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.5% and 54.6%), based on 24K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 27% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 27.3% win rate (4 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.3% win rate (29 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.7% win rate (138 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.5% win rate (555 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.8% win rate (1,939 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.4% win rate (4,902 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.8% win rate (8,563 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.5% win rate (6,250 games)
  • 2500+: 55.0% win rate (1,262 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (53%), worst in UltraBullet (14%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 51.6% win rate (7,388 games)
  • Blitz: 52.5% win rate (14,250 games)
  • Rapid: 51.7% win rate (1,901 games)
  • Classical: 48.3% win rate (101 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (85 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (179 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (277 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (94 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (490 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (1,181 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (246 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (3,185 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (518 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (41 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,858 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (6,057 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (619 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (2,595 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (3,254 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (396 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (1,055 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 66.4% expected score (200 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 24K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.5% win rate for white (6.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (52.5%) outperforms Classical (48.3%) by 4.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 45.7%-59.6%) win rate for white, based on 138 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 555 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 53.4%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.6%) win rate for white (7.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.2%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 49.9%-53.6%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 40.2%-56.4%) win rate for white (101 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.2%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.