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French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation

164K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.4%Based on 164K games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.4%
Outcome Distribution
51.0%4.4%44.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.f4
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation
Analyzen=164K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 53.4%), based on 164K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~54%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.8% win rate (44 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.3% win rate (245 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.9% win rate (979 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.4% win rate (4,778 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.0% win rate (17,186 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.6% win rate (42,628 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.9% win rate (53,811 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.2% win rate (37,325 games)
  • 2500+: 54.1% win rate (6,818 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (16 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (46,874 games)
  • Blitz: 50.7% win rate (102,071 games)
  • Rapid: 50.2% win rate (14,241 games)
  • Classical: 48.7% win rate (612 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (177 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (603 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (327 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (2,152 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (2,376 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (230 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (4,650 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (11,081 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (1,354 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (99 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (8,096 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (29,520 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (4,714 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (294 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (12,506 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (35,802 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (5,352 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (13,562 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (21,283 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (2,426 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 67.8% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (5,102 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (1,613 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (103 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 164K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.1% win rate for white (6.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.8%) outperforms Classical (48.7%) by 3.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 42.1%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 245 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 47.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 979 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.2%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.2%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.0%) win rate for white (102K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.9%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-52.0%) win rate for white (612 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Pawn Center Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.