TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation

520 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score53.7%Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 57.3%Based on 520 games
0%53.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 57.3%
Outcome Distribution
51.9%3.5%44.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...e5
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation
Analyzen=520
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation has a 53.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.1% and 57.3%), based on 520 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 92.4 · Trap factor: +13.1 · n=520

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 52% → 60%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.4% win rate (91 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.0% win rate (72 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.6% win rate (55 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.0% win rate (63 games)
  • 1600-1799: 55.8% win rate (80 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.3% win rate (67 games)
  • 2000-2199: 39.1% win rate (56 games)
  • 2200-2499: 67.4% win rate (20 games)
  • 2500+: 60.0% win rate (16 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (56%), worst in Classical (37%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.4% win rate (135 games)
  • Blitz: 49.7% win rate (237 games)
  • Rapid: 55.5% win rate (140 games)
  • Classical: 36.8% win rate (8 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (41 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 69.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 33.7% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 68.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 35.4% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 520 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 55.8% win rate for white (80 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (55.5%) outperforms Blitz (49.7%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 45.4%-59.4%) win rate for white (135 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 44.4%-55.0%) win rate for white (237 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 48.6%-62.3%) win rate for white (140 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation is statistically balanced with a 51.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-55.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.