7.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Modern Line has a 51.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 52.4%), based on 7.8K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 49%
Best in Blitz (48%), worst in Classical (36%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Modern Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Modern Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.2% win rate for white (1.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (48.4%) outperforms Rapid (46.1%) by 2.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Modern Line has a sharpness score of 92.0 (decisive), meaning 92.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Modern Line has a 38.7% (90% CI: 34.6%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 369 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Modern Line has a 46.7% (90% CI: 44.7%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Modern Line has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Modern Line has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.3%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Modern Line has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.6%-47.9%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Modern Line has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.6%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.7%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Modern Line has a 46.1% (90% CI: 42.6%-49.6%) win rate for white (551 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.7%.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Modern Line is statistically balanced with a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.