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French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line

6.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.8%Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 55.9%Based on 6.2K games
0%54.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 55.9%
Outcome Distribution
50.9%7.8%41.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Ne5
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line
Analyzen=6.2K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate7.8%

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line has a 54.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.8% and 55.9%), based on 6.2K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.5 · Trap factor: +6.0 · n=6.2K

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 29% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 28.8% win rate (28 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.1% win rate (45 games)
  • 1200-1399: 59.4% win rate (65 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.0% win rate (95 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.1% win rate (210 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.2% win rate (672 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.3% win rate (1,805 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.4% win rate (2,495 games)
  • 2500+: 53.8% win rate (797 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (53%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.7% win rate (6 games)
  • Bullet: 51.9% win rate (2,191 games)
  • Blitz: 50.1% win rate (3,550 games)
  • Rapid: 53.2% win rate (424 games)
  • Classical: 45.9% win rate (41 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.3% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (45 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (104 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (155 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (447 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (50 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (329 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (1,321 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.7% expected score (144 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (951 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (1,381 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (155 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 76.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (579 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (208 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line perform best?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (797 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.9%) outperforms Blitz (50.1%) by 1.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line has a sharpness score of 92.2 (decisive), meaning 92.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line has a 46.1% (90% CI: 40.5%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 210 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line has a 49.2% (90% CI: 46.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 672 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.4%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 9.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line has a 52.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line has a 53.8% (90% CI: 50.9%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 797 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.2%-53.7%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.5%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.7%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line has a 53.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-57.2%) win rate for white (424 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.6%.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line a good opening?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.