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French Defense: Paulsen Variation

948K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.9%Range (90% confident): 52.8% – 52.9%Based on 948K games
0%52.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.8% – 52.9%
Outcome Distribution
50.9%3.8%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Nc3
French Defense: Paulsen Variation
Analyzen=948K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 52.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.8% and 52.9%), based on 948K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.9% win rate (56,153 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.2% win rate (64,213 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.0% win rate (82,283 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.6% win rate (111,524 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.2% win rate (151,663 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (190,468 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.3% win rate (170,284 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.0% win rate (100,065 games)
  • 2500+: 49.9% win rate (21,579 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (54%), worst in Bullet (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.4% win rate (4,213 games)
  • Bullet: 50.3% win rate (323,696 games)
  • Blitz: 50.8% win rate (459,804 games)
  • Rapid: 52.6% win rate (154,169 games)
  • Classical: 53.5% win rate (6,350 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.7% expected score (30 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (7,479 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (30,482 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (17,992 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (170 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (99 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (11,381 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (32,264 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (19,826 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (643 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (297 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (18,068 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (40,238 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (22,581 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (1,099 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (1,140 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (27,772 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (55,971 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (25,108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (1,533 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (1,399 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (46,264 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (76,078 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (26,564 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (1,358 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (759 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (61,871 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (101,871 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (24,899 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (1,068 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (321 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (72,417 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (83,647 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (13,499 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (400 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.7% expected score (148 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (61,581 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (34,681 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (3,584 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.5% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (16,863 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (4,572 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.3% expected score (116 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Paulsen Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 948K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Paulsen Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Paulsen Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.2% win rate for white (64K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (53.5%) outperforms Bullet (50.3%) by 3.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation?

The French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 64K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 82K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 112K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 152K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 190K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 170K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 100K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.7%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate for white (324K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.9%) win rate for white (460K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.8%) win rate for white (154K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Paulsen Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.5%-54.5%) win rate for white (6.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the French Defense: Paulsen Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Paulsen Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.