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Analyzer

French Defense: Morphy Gambit

2.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score42.0%Range (90% confident): 40.3% – 43.8%Based on 2.1K games
0%42.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 40.3% – 43.8%
Outcome Distribution
40.1%3.7%56.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Nh3
French Defense: Morphy Gambit
Analyzen=2.1K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 42.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 40.3% and 43.8%), based on 2.1K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -18.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 89.9 · Trap factor: +8.6 · n=2.1K

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 41% → 78%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.4% win rate (800 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.5% win rate (461 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.0% win rate (341 games)
  • 1400-1599: 37.5% win rate (277 games)
  • 1600-1799: 38.1% win rate (118 games)
  • 1800-1999: 37.6% win rate (93 games)
  • 2000-2199: 34.2% win rate (35 games)
  • 2200-2499: 61.9% win rate (9 games)
  • 2500+: 77.8% win rate (3 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.7% win rate (13 games)
  • Bullet: 35.5% win rate (363 games)
  • Blitz: 42.6% win rate (943 games)
  • Rapid: 39.4% win rate (769 games)
  • Classical: 34.7% win rate (49 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499———
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (127 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (391 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (278 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.3% expected score (59 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (188 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (200 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 24.8% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (152 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (128 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 26.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (106 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (90 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.1% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 37.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (46 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (45 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 32.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 15.2% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Morphy Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate?

The French Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 40.1% (90% CI: 38.4%-41.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Morphy Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Morphy Gambit performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 41.4% win rate for white (800 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (42.6%) outperforms Bullet (35.5%) by 7.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit?

The French Defense: Morphy Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 41.4% (90% CI: 38.5%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 800 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 39.5% (90% CI: 35.8%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 461 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 41.0% (90% CI: 36.7%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 341 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 37.5% (90% CI: 32.8%-42.3%) win rate for white, based on 277 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 38.1% (90% CI: 30.9%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 118 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 35.5% (90% CI: 31.5%-39.7%) win rate for white (363 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.

What is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 42.6% (90% CI: 40.0%-45.3%) win rate for white (943 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 39.4% (90% CI: 36.5%-42.3%) win rate for white (769 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the French Defense: Morphy Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Morphy Gambit is slightly favors black with a 40.1% (90% CI: 38.4%-41.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.