1.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Janowski Variation has a 55.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.9% and 57.9%), based on 1.7K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 14% → 53%
Best in Classical (82%), worst in Blitz (52%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Janowski Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 51.4%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Janowski Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 56.2% win rate for white (747 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (56.7%) outperforms Rapid (53.2%) by 3.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Janowski Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Janowski Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 43.5%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 181 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Janowski Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 47.5%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 554 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Janowski Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 53.2%-59.2%) win rate for white, based on 747 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Janowski Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 46.8%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 199 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Janowski Variation has a 56.7% (90% CI: 53.2%-60.1%) win rate for white (557 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Janowski Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-54.0%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Janowski Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.4% (90% CI: 51.4%-55.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.