303 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 49.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.0% and 54.4%), based on 303 Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~43%)
Best in Rapid (85%), worst in Classical (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1800-1999 | — | — | — | ||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 40.5%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 303 rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Grigoriev Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 47.8% win rate for white (123 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (46.8%) outperforms Bullet (31.3%) by 15.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a sharpness score of 91.0 (decisive), meaning 91.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 40.5%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 123 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 38.0%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 133 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 10.8% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Grigoriev Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 41.4%-52.3%) win rate for white (226 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.0%.
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Grigoriev Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.2% (90% CI: 40.5%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.