1.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Dr. Olland Variation has a 55.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 57.6%), based on 1.2K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 82% → 51%
Best in Classical (60%), worst in Rapid (40%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Dr. Olland Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Dr. Olland Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.8% win rate for white (592 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (53.5%) outperforms Rapid (40.2%) by 13.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Dr. Olland Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Dr. Olland Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 46.0%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 390 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Dr. Olland Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 51.5%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 592 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Dr. Olland Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 44.7%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 164 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Dr. Olland Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-58.3%) win rate for white (248 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Dr. Olland Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-56.2%) win rate for white (914 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Dr. Olland Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-55.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.