French Defense: Marshall Gambit

436K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.8%Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 53.0%Based on 436K games

0%52.8%100%

Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 53.0%

Outcome Distribution

51.0%3.6%45.4%

Win

Draw

Loss

3...c5

French Defense: Marshall Gambit

Analyzen=436K

Avg Length31 moves

Sharpness96%

Draw Rate3.6%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.7% and 53.0%), based on 436K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 92.9 · Trap factor: +8.3 · n=436K

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 50%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (55%), worst in Bullet (49%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (4,054 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (11,520 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (5,474 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (28 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (8,253 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (22,415 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (11,792 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (156 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.9% expected score (53 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (13,767 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (34,581 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (18,981 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (454 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.5% expected score (310 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (18,155 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (43,841 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (23,596 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (1,027 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (480 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (21,437 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (42,636 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (19,455 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (973 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (178 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (24,286 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (30,787 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (11,624 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.3% expected score (517 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (99 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (20,596 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (15,237 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (3,399 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 68.0% expected score (85 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (121 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (17,991 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (3,502 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.7% expected score (409 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (3,918 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (165 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent

French Defense

45.7%

Variations (5)

French Defense: Advance Variation

48.0%

French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation

46.1%

French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap

48.6%

French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit

46.5%

French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation

48.8%

Analyze French Defense: Marshall Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate?

The French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 436K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Marshall Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Marshall Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (85K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (54.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.5%) by 4.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit?

The French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 87K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 85K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 67K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-52.8%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.2%) win rate for white (132K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.9%) win rate for white (205K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.7%) win rate for white (95K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Marshall Gambit has a 54.9% (90% CI: 53.4%-56.3%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Marshall Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the French Defense: Marshall Gambit expected score for White?