TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation

8.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.9%Range (90% confident): 51.0% – 52.8%Based on 8.4K games
0%51.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.0% – 52.8%
Outcome Distribution
48.8%6.2%45.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation
n=8.4K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.2%

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 51.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.0% and 52.8%), based on 8.4K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 38% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 37.6% win rate (77 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.8% win rate (161 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.9% win rate (247 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.8% win rate (438 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.9% win rate (693 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.7% win rate (1,370 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.8% win rate (2,389 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.1% win rate (2,525 games)
  • 2500+: 52.1% win rate (474 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Classical (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.7% win rate (6 games)
  • Bullet: 50.0% win rate (2,630 games)
  • Blitz: 48.4% win rate (5,041 games)
  • Rapid: 47.6% win rate (667 games)
  • Classical: 33.3% win rate (30 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (41 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (77 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (54 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (131 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (63 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (117 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (241 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.8% expected score (71 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (199 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (381 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (105 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (463 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (801 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (102 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (688 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,569 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (126 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (757 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (1,649 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (116 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (319 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (151 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate?

The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation perform best?

The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (693 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.0%) outperforms Rapid (47.6%) by 2.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation?

The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-60.2%) win rate for white, based on 161 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 43.7%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 247 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 42.0%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 438 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 693 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 43.5%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 474 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.6%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.5%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 44.5%-50.8%) win rate for white (667 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

Is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.