French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation
8.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.8%.
Measured over 8.4K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.4K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 8.4K
- Best context
- 54.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 48.3% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.8%
- Draws
- 6.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 39.9% at 0-999, 50.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (41 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (77 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (54 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (49 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (131 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (63 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (117 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (241 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.8% expected score (71 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (199 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (381 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (105 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (463 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (801 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (102 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (688 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,569 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (126 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (757 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (1,649 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (116 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (319 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (151 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation scores 51.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.0% and 52.8% — from 8.4K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 8.4K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation, White wins 48.8%, draws 6.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 8.4K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation perform best?
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.7% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.0% in Blitz (5.0K games) against 51.2% in Rapid (667 games).
How sharp is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation?
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 53.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 161 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 247 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 45.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 438 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 52.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 693 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 45.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.1%, draws 9.0% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.1%, draws 5.6% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 474 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.4%, draws 7.2% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.6%, draws 7.1% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 667 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.8% of its games and loses 45.0%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.