380 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Duras Variation has a 58.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.2% and 62.5%), based on 380 Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 50%
Best in Classical (60%), worst in Rapid (24%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Duras Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-59.1%) win rate for white, based on 380 rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Duras Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 56.6% win rate for white (183 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (57.6%) outperforms Bullet (51.2%) by 6.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Duras Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Duras Variation has a 57.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-64.8%) win rate for white, based on 121 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Duras Variation has a 56.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-62.6%) win rate for white, based on 183 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Duras Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 43.1%-59.3%) win rate for white (101 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Duras Variation has a 57.6% (90% CI: 52.6%-62.5%) win rate for white (265 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Duras Variation is statistically favors white with a 54.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-59.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.