30K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 45.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 44.8% and 45.7%), based on 30K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 51% → 47%
Best in Rapid (44%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 42.7% (90% CI: 42.2%-43.1%) win rate for white, based on 30K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (146 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (43.8%) outperforms Classical (37.6%) by 6.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 48.5%-61.9%) win rate for white, based on 146 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.0% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 42.0%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 451 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 44.9%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 42.6%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 41.2% (90% CI: 40.3%-42.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 40.4% (90% CI: 39.6%-41.2%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 44.0%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 766 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 41.4%-43.3%) win rate for white (7.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 42.0%-43.2%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 42.4%-45.2%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.
In Classical games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a 37.6% (90% CI: 31.5%-43.9%) win rate for white (162 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation is slightly favors black with a 42.7% (90% CI: 42.2%-43.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.