French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation
30K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.7%.
Measured over 30K games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 30K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 30K
- Best context
- 51.7% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 41.2% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.8%
- Draws
- 5.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 56.1%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (18 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.7% expected score (73 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (31 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.1% expected score (94 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (273 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 64.2% expected score (83 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (263 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (655 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (236 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (18 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (797 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (1,929 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (489 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (40 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,466 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (5,272 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (936 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (66 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (2,184 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (6,799 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (1,090 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 33.6% expected score (32 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (2,301 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (3,576 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (523 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (599 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (160 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation scores 45.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.8% and 45.7% — from 30K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 30K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation, White wins 42.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 30K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation perform best?
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 55.8% (146 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 45.4% in Blitz (19K games) against 47.1% in Rapid (3.4K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation?
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 55.3%, draws 1.0% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 146 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 45.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 451 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 44.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 41.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 40.4%, draws 5.3% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 45.3%, draws 6.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 47.0%, draws 7.9% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 766 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 42.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 42.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 43.8%, draws 6.5% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 37.6%, draws 7.6% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 162 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Chigorin Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 42.7% of its games and loses 52.2%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.