French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation
2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.
Measured over 2.2K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.2K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.2K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.5% at 0-999, 46.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (42 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (220 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (133 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (47 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (153 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 60.7% expected score (129 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (67 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (120 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (103 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (63 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (130 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (85 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (104 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (119 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (74 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (63 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (135 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (57 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (52 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (137 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (28 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 40.1% expected score (54 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (41 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation scores 52.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.8% and 54.3% — from 2.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation, White wins 50.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 56.6% (331 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.8% in Blitz (1.1K games) against 55.5% in Rapid (610 games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation?
The French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 52.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 396 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 54.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 331 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 298 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 53.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 286 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 304 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 262 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 46.5%, draws 6.6% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 217 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 46.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 506 Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.1%, draws 5.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 53.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 610 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Guimard Variation, Thunderbunny Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 50.4% of its games and loses 45.3%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.