TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation

2.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.9%Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 52.0%Based on 2.1M games
0%51.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 52.0%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%4.6%45.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.c4
French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation
Analyzen=2.1M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 51.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.9% and 52.0%), based on 2.1M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.1% win rate (15,483 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.9% win rate (38,579 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.0% win rate (93,807 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.0% win rate (216,374 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.8% win rate (434,442 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.3% win rate (639,826 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.4% win rate (431,740 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.0% win rate (180,222 games)
  • 2500+: 51.3% win rate (27,374 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.1% win rate (3,765 games)
  • Bullet: 49.9% win rate (914,948 games)
  • Blitz: 49.5% win rate (962,892 games)
  • Rapid: 48.9% win rate (187,760 games)
  • Classical: 47.5% win rate (8,482 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (6,122 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (6,896 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (2,417 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (176 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (16,708 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (16,581 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (5,032 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (82 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (393 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (42,803 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (39,689 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (10,609 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (313 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (864 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (92,190 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (99,196 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (23,013 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (1,111 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (1,056 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (165,894 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (221,036 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (43,796 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (2,660 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (581 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (235,839 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (338,085 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (62,179 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (3,142 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (284 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (206,068 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (189,728 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (34,596 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (1,064 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (374 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (125,072 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (48,666 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (6,019 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.6% expected score (91 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (24,252 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (3,015 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (27K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.9%) outperforms Classical (47.5%) by 2.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 94K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 216K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 434K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 640K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 432K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 180K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.4%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate for white (915K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.6%) win rate for white (963K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.1%) win rate for white (188K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.4%) win rate for white (8.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.

Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.