French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation
545 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.7%.
Measured over 545 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 545 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 545
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.6% at 0-999, 70.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | ||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (30 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (47 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (57 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 66.3% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (56 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (60 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 67.2% expected score (16 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 36.1% expected score (38 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (49 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 65.8% expected score (27 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation scores 53.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 56.7% — from 545 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 545+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 545 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 55.6% (132 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.5% in Blitz (237 games) against 59.4% in Rapid (78 games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation?
The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 51.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 124 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 54.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 132 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 229 Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 237 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 51.5% of its games and loses 45.1%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.