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Analyzer

French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation

545 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 49.7% – 56.7%Based on 545 games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.7% – 56.7%
Outcome Distribution
51.5%3.4%45.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation
n=545
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.7% and 56.7%), based on 545 Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 60%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.5% win rate (41 games)
  • 1000-1199: 54.8% win rate (56 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.4% win rate (124 games)
  • 1400-1599: 54.3% win rate (132 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.3% win rate (99 games)
  • 1800-1999: 56.0% win rate (69 games)
  • 2000-2199: 55.6% win rate (21 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 2500+: 60.0% win rate (1 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in Bullet (50%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 50.1% win rate (229 games)
  • Blitz: 50.5% win rate (237 games)
  • Rapid: 57.2% win rate (78 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (1 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499———
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (47 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (57 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 66.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (56 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (60 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 67.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 36.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 65.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 545 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 54.3% win rate for white (132 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (57.2%) outperforms Bullet (50.1%) by 7.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 44.1%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 124 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 47.2%-61.3%) win rate for white, based on 132 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 44.7%-55.5%) win rate for white (229 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 45.2%-55.8%) win rate for white (237 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation is statistically balanced with a 51.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-55.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.