TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation

158 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score45.0%Range (90% confident): 38.6% – 51.5%Based on 158 games
0%45.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 38.6% – 51.5%
Outcome Distribution
43.6%2.8%53.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
10...c4
French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation
Analyzen=158
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.8%

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation has a 45.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 38.6% and 51.5%), based on 158 Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 16%

1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1200-1399: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1400-1599: 33.3% win rate (6 games)
  • 1600-1799: 65.5% win rate (13 games)
  • 1800-1999: 32.3% win rate (31 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.6% win rate (47 games)
  • 2200-2499: 38.3% win rate (52 games)
  • 2500+: 15.8% win rate (8 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (71%), worst in Blitz (41%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 43.4% win rate (48 games)
  • Blitz: 41.4% win rate (94 games)
  • Rapid: 48.4% win rate (14 games)
  • Classical: 71.4% win rate (2 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399————
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (30 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 37.2%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 158 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 38.3% win rate for white (52 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

How sharp is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Stahlberg Variation is slightly favors black with a 43.6% (90% CI: 37.2%-50.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.