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French Defense: Burn Variation

291K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

No move sequence recorded for this opening

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.7%

45%60%
Floor53.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.9%.

Measured over 291K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 291K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
291K
Best context
57.9% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
49.1% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
94.1%
Draws
5.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 55.9%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (714 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (1,818 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (1,011 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,531 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (4,096 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (1,810 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (3,021 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (8,735 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (3,628 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.7% expected score (102 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (5,194 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (14,798 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (5,424 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (349 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (9,141 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (22,164 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (6,829 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (515 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (43 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (12,804 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (33,176 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (8,573 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (575 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 67.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (18,246 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (40,522 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (7,117 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (273 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (26,612 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (28,314 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (3,317 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (64 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (15,587 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (4,819 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (343 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (33 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 53.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.6% and 53.9% — from 291K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
291K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Burn Variation, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.9% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 291K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Burn Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Burn Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.9% (21K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Burn Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.0% in Blitz (158K games) against 52.6% in Rapid (38K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Burn Variation?

The French Defense: Burn Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 52.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 53.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.4%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.4%, draws 6.0% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 66K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.5%, draws 7.0% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 50.3%, draws 13.2% and loses 36.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 45.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 166 Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 93K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 158K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.3%, draws 6.5% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.5%, draws 9.1% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Burn Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Burn Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.7% of its games and loses 43.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.