French Defense: Burn Variation
291K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.9%.
Measured over 291K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 291K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 291K
- Best context
- 57.9% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 49.1% at 1600-1799 Classical
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.1%
- Draws
- 5.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 55.9%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (714 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (1,818 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (1,011 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,531 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (4,096 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (1,810 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (3,021 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (8,735 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (3,628 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.7% expected score (102 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (48 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (5,194 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (14,798 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (5,424 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (349 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (9,141 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (22,164 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (6,829 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (515 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (43 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (12,804 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (33,176 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (8,573 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (575 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 67.2% expected score (16 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (18,246 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (40,522 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (7,117 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (273 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (26,612 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (28,314 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (3,317 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (64 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (15,587 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (4,819 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (343 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 53.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.6% and 53.9% — from 291K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 291K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate?
The French Defense: Burn Variation scores 53.7% (range, 90% confident: 53.6% – 53.9%) for White, based on 291K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Burn Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Burn Variation performs best at 2500+, where it scores 56.9% for White (21K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the French Defense: Burn Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, Bullet (55.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.1%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the French Defense: Burn Variation?
The French Defense: Burn Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 54.5% (range, 90% confident: 53.1% – 55.8%) for White, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 54.7% (range, 90% confident: 53.8% – 55.7%) for White, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 52.8% (range, 90% confident: 52.1% – 53.4%) for White, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 51.7% (range, 90% confident: 51.2% – 52.2%) for White, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 51.4% (range, 90% confident: 51.0% – 51.8%) for White, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 51.9% (range, 90% confident: 51.5% – 52.2%) for White, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 54.5% (range, 90% confident: 54.2% – 54.8%) for White, based on 66K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 56.0% (range, 90% confident: 55.6% – 56.3%) for White, based on 58K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 56.9% (range, 90% confident: 56.4% – 57.5%) for White, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 13.2% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 47.1% (range, 90% confident: 40.7% – 53.4%) for White (166 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 55.4% (range, 90% confident: 55.2% – 55.7%) for White (93K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 53.0% (range, 90% confident: 52.8% – 53.2%) for White (158K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 52.6% (range, 90% confident: 52.2% – 53.1%) for White (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.
What is the French Defense: Burn Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical games, the French Defense: Burn Variation scores 52.0% (range, 90% confident: 50.2% – 53.9%) for White (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.1%.
Is the French Defense: Burn Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Burn Variation is good for White with a 50.7% (range, 90% confident: 50.6% – 50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.