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French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation

43K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score56.6%Range (90% confident): 56.2% – 56.9%Based on 43K games
0%56.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 56.2% – 56.9%
Outcome Distribution
54.7%3.7%41.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.Re1
French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation
Analyzen=43K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 56.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 56.2% and 56.9%), based on 43K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +12.4% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.8% win rate (33 games)
  • 1000-1199: 57.2% win rate (190 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.9% win rate (607 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.2% win rate (1,492 games)
  • 1600-1799: 56.1% win rate (4,476 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.3% win rate (8,567 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.4% win rate (12,329 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.4% win rate (11,958 games)
  • 2500+: 54.6% win rate (3,062 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (68%), worst in Blitz (54%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 68.0% win rate (11 games)
  • Bullet: 55.7% win rate (11,622 games)
  • Blitz: 54.1% win rate (26,395 games)
  • Rapid: 55.5% win rate (4,467 games)
  • Classical: 55.1% win rate (219 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (85 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (85 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 75.6% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (257 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 61.9% expected score (265 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (83 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (381 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (901 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (196 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (915 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (2,934 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (587 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (1,570 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (5,563 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (1,344 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (87 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (2,498 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (8,261 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (1,510 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (59 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (3,941 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (7,300 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (694 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 72.5% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (1,952 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (1,076 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 54.3%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 43K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 56.1% win rate for white (4.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (55.7%) outperforms Classical (55.1%) by 0.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 57.2% (90% CI: 51.3%-63.0%) win rate for white, based on 190 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 57.9% (90% CI: 54.6%-61.2%) win rate for white, based on 607 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 53.1%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 56.1% (90% CI: 54.9%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 53.4%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 53.7%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 53.6%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 53.1%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 55.7% (90% CI: 54.9%-56.4%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.6%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 54.3%-56.8%) win rate for white (4.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation has a 55.1% (90% CI: 49.6%-60.6%) win rate for white (219 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation is statistically favors white with a 54.7% (90% CI: 54.3%-55.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.