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French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line

608K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.6%Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.7%Based on 608K games
0%52.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.7%
Outcome Distribution
50.4%4.4%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.a3
French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line
Analyzen=608K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 52.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 52.7%), based on 608K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.0% win rate (1,433 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.7% win rate (6,651 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.3% win rate (19,324 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.4% win rate (51,206 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.9% win rate (106,736 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.2% win rate (168,796 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.8% win rate (150,517 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.9% win rate (89,066 games)
  • 2500+: 52.5% win rate (14,090 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.8% win rate (29 games)
  • Bullet: 52.1% win rate (156,897 games)
  • Blitz: 49.9% win rate (360,121 games)
  • Rapid: 49.7% win rate (86,757 games)
  • Classical: 49.9% win rate (4,015 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (783 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (569 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (81 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (2,909 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (3,095 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (635 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (7,134 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (9,491 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (2,636 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (54 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (15,282 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (28,274 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (7,312 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (329 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (23,228 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (64,967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (17,475 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (1,063 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (30,120 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (108,160 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (28,870 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (1,644 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (32,625 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (94,809 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (22,323 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (758 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (35,216 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (46,640 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (7,077 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (133 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (9,600 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (4,116 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (348 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (26 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 608K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (14K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.1%) outperforms Classical (49.9%) by 2.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 44.0% (90% CI: 41.8%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 107K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 169K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 151K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 89K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.3%) win rate for white (157K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate for white (360K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.0%) win rate for white (87K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.2%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.