TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit

10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.3%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 49.2%Based on 10K games
0%48.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 49.2%
Outcome Distribution
46.5%3.5%49.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.b4
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
Analyzen=10K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 48.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 49.2%), based on 10K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 37% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 36.5% win rate (93 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.5% win rate (312 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.2% win rate (680 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.5% win rate (1,594 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.2% win rate (2,198 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.4% win rate (2,686 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.1% win rate (1,618 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.5% win rate (586 games)
  • 2500+: 53.0% win rate (339 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (64%), worst in Classical (31%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 63.6% win rate (4 games)
  • Bullet: 49.6% win rate (2,709 games)
  • Blitz: 46.1% win rate (5,708 games)
  • Rapid: 43.7% win rate (1,610 games)
  • Classical: 30.7% win rate (75 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 34.9% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (104 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (163 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (45 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (208 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (381 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (85 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (341 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (990 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (252 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 15.2% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (355 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (1,306 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (492 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (544 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,637 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (490 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 25.8% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (559 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (870 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (187 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (323 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (218 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (240 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (99 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Main Line
50.4%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.7%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 10K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (1.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.6%) outperforms Classical (30.7%) by 18.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 39.9%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 312 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 41.2% (90% CI: 38.1%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 680 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 42.5% (90% CI: 40.5%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.5%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 46.4% (90% CI: 44.8%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.1%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 52.5% (90% CI: 49.1%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 586 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 48.6%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 339 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.1%-51.2%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.0%-47.2%) win rate for white (5.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a 43.7% (90% CI: 41.6%-45.7%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit is slightly favors black with a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.7%-47.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.