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Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation

3.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation gives Black a 53.3% expected score — a strong choice.

Worst case (90% confidence) you keep a 3.9% advantage over the 50% baseline.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score53.3%Based on 3.9K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%53.3%60%
Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 54.6%
Min adv+3.9%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=3.9K
Outcome Distribution
6...O-O
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation
Analyzen=3.9K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 53.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.0% and 54.6%), based on 3.9K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.9% win rate (192 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.7% win rate (287 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.2% win rate (348 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.4% win rate (273 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.7% win rate (175 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.0% win rate (286 games)
  • 2000-2199: 56.3% win rate (800 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.2% win rate (1,156 games)
  • 2500+: 42.4% win rate (368 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (52%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 50.6% win rate (1,151 games)
  • Blitz: 52.3% win rate (1,959 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (743 games)
  • Classical: 52.4% win rate (30 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (71 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (135 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (120 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 62.5% expected score (143 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (184 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (123 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (113 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (33 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (81 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (56 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (62 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (160 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (59 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (253 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (478 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (67 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (456 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (628 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (69 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (252 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (112 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted
51.9%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation
50.7%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation
49.0%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation
52.8%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.5%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (368 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.2%) outperforms Blitz (43.4%) by 2.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation?

The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 39.9%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 192 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 44.9%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 287 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 40.1%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 348 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 43.0%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 273 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 41.1% (90% CI: 35.1%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 175 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 38.5%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 286 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 40.5% (90% CI: 37.6%-43.4%) win rate for white, based on 800 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.0%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 368 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.8%-48.6%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 41.6%-45.3%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 43.5%-49.6%) win rate for white (743 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.5%-46.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.