Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Bardeleben Variation
168 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.4%.
Measured over 168 games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 12.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 168 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 168
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 46 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 87.9%
- Draws
- 12.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 1000-1199, 45.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 33.8% expected score (17 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.9% expected score (49 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (25 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Bardeleben Variation scores 51.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.9% and 57.4% — from 168 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 168+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Bardeleben Variation win rate?
The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Bardeleben Variation scores 51.2% (range, 90% confident: 44.9% – 57.4%) for Black, based on 168 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Bardeleben Variation perform best?
The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Bardeleben Variation performs best at 2200-2499, where it scores 56.1% for Black (73 games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Bardeleben Variation?
The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Bardeleben Variation has a sharpness score of 87.9 (moderately decisive), meaning 87.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 46 moves.
What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Bardeleben Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Bardeleben Variation scores 52.4% (range, 90% confident: 44.4% – 60.4%) for Black (101 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.2%.
Is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Bardeleben Variation a good opening?
The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Bardeleben Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White with a 42.8% (range, 90% confident: 36.6% – 49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.