Formation
2 variations · 1.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · Overall
56.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.6%.
Measured over 1.5K games at this level and clock.
A strong opening choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.5K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- #2 of 62
- Games in this context
- 1.5K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Variations measured
- 2
- Average game length
- 34 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
Black · Overall · limited dataNot enough games here yet to rank what comes next. Pick another rating or time control above.
These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 69.2% at 0-999, 49.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (90 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 67.5% expected score (50 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (92 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (64 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (82 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (81 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 60.8% expected score (100 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 82.3% expected score (31 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (89 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (103 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (39 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (100 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (100 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (39 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (61 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (74 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (26 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 63.7% expected score (97 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
2 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Formation family scores 56.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.4% and 58.6% — from 1.5K Lichess games across 2 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.5K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Formation win rate?
Across the Formation's 2 variations, Black wins 54.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 1.5K rated games from Lichess.
How many Formation variations are there?
2 Formation variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Formation perform best?
The Formation family performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 62.2% (155 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Formation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Formation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 57.8% in Blitz (537 games) against 60.5% in Rapid (233 games).
How sharp is the Formation?
Formation games are 96.2% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Formation a good opening family?
The Formation family is good for Black overall. Across its games, Black wins 54.6% and loses 41.6%. Results differ between its 2 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.