What is the Formation expected score for Black?
Snapshot
Overall, the Formation family has a 56.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 54.4% and 58.6%), aggregated from 2 variations and 1.5K Lichess games.
Formation
2 variations · 1.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Formation gives Black a 56.5% expected score — a strong opening choice.
With a minimum advantage of 8.8%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.
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Rating
Time
Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 54.4% – 58.6%Aggregated from 2 variations
0%56.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.4% – 58.6%
ContextOverall · n=1.5K
Outcome Distribution
54.6%3.8%41.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...e5
Formation
Variations2
Games (Context)1.5K
Avg Length34 moves
Draw Rate3.8%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall · limited data
No continuation list is available for this context yet (needs more games).
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
Black Win% by Rating
Declines with rating: 59% → 45%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 59.2% win rate (158 games)
- 1000-1199: 51.1% win rate (246 games)
- 1200-1399: 58.8% win rate (229 games)
- 1400-1599: 51.9% win rate (252 games)
- 1600-1799: 48.9% win rate (243 games)
- 1800-1999: 61.0% win rate (155 games)
- 2000-2199: 52.6% win rate (125 games)
- 2200-2499: 59.1% win rate (116 games)
- 2500+: 45.1% win rate (24 games)
Black Win% by Time Control
Best in Rapid (59%), worst in Classical (37%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 55.8% win rate (37 games)
- Bullet: 53.2% win rate (725 games)
- Blitz: 55.1% win rate (537 games)
- Rapid: 58.6% win rate (233 games)
- Classical: 37.1% win rate (16 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · Black expected scores
Black% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (90 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 67.5% expected score (50 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (92 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (64 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (82 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (81 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 60.8% expected score (100 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 82.3% expected score (31 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (89 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (103 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (39 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (100 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (100 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (39 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (61 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (74 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (26 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 63.7% expected score (97 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (2)
Analyze Formation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Formation win rate?
The Formation family has a 41.6% (90% CI: 39.5%-43.7%) win rate for white, aggregated from 2 variations and 1.5K rated games from Lichess.
How many Formation variations are there?
This analysis covers 2 Formation variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Formation perform best?
The Formation family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 47.5% win rate for white (246 games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Formation better in blitz or rapid?
Bullet (43.8%) outperforms Rapid (37.7%) by 6.1% across all Formation variations.
How sharp is the Formation?
Formation games are 96.2% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Formation a good opening family?
The Formation family is slightly favors black overall with a 41.6% (90% CI: 39.5%-43.7%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 2 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.