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Analyzer

Formation: Hippopotamus Attack

1.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score40.8%Range (90% confident): 38.5% – 43.1%Based on 1.2K games
0%40.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 38.5% – 43.1%
Outcome Distribution
38.8%3.9%57.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.g3
Formation: Hippopotamus Attack
Analyzen=1.2K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a 40.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 38.5% and 43.1%), based on 1.2K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.2% · Bullet best · Blitz worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 37% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 37.0% win rate (154 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.9% win rate (165 games)
  • 1200-1399: 32.8% win rate (189 games)
  • 1400-1599: 38.0% win rate (192 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.2% win rate (150 games)
  • 1800-1999: 27.8% win rate (101 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.6% win rate (118 games)
  • 2200-2499: 36.8% win rate (114 games)
  • 2500+: 46.7% win rate (21 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (55%), worst in Rapid (29%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (37 games)
  • Bullet: 42.8% win rate (693 games)
  • Blitz: 32.6% win rate (362 games)
  • Rapid: 28.6% win rate (98 games)
  • Classical: 54.8% win rate (14 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (88 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 31.2% expected score (49 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 22.7% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (89 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (59 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (76 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 29.4% expected score (69 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (85 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 31.7% expected score (64 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 35.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 29.2% expected score (56 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 30.7% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (91 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (96 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Variations (1)
Formation: Shy Attack
51.4%
Analyze Formation: Hippopotamus Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate?

The Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a 38.8% (90% CI: 36.5%-41.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack perform best?

The Formation: Hippopotamus Attack performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 45.9% win rate for white (165 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (42.8%) outperforms Rapid (28.6%) by 14.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack?

The Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a 37.0% (90% CI: 30.7%-43.4%) win rate for white, based on 154 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a 45.9% (90% CI: 39.6%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 165 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a 32.8% (90% CI: 27.3%-38.5%) win rate for white, based on 189 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a 38.0% (90% CI: 32.3%-43.8%) win rate for white, based on 192 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a 43.2% (90% CI: 36.7%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 150 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a 27.8% (90% CI: 20.8%-35.3%) win rate for white, based on 101 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a 45.6% (90% CI: 38.2%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 118 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a 36.8% (90% CI: 29.6%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 114 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a 42.8% (90% CI: 39.8%-45.9%) win rate for white (693 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a 32.6% (90% CI: 28.6%-36.7%) win rate for white (362 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack a good opening?

The Formation: Hippopotamus Attack is slightly favors black with a 38.8% (90% CI: 36.5%-41.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.