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Formation: Hippopotamus Attack

1.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
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a1
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7.g3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

40.8%

35%55%
Floor38.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.1%.

Measured over 1.2K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.2K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.2K
Best context
not measured yet
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.2% · Bullet best · Blitz worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.5% at 0-999, 50.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (88 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 31.2% expected score (49 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 22.7% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (89 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (59 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (76 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 29.4% expected score (69 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (85 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 31.7% expected score (64 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 35.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 29.2% expected score (56 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 30.7% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (91 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (96 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Variations (1)
Formation: Shy Attack
51.4%
Analyze Formation: Hippopotamus Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack scores 40.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 38.5% and 43.1% — from 1.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate?

Playing the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack, White wins 38.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 57.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.8%. It rests on 1.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack perform best?

The Formation: Hippopotamus Attack performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 46.7% (165 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 35.6% in Blitz (362 games) against 30.9% in Rapid (98 games).

How sharp is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack?

The Formation: Hippopotamus Attack has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 37.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 60.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.5%. It rests on 154 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 45.9%, draws 1.5% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 165 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 32.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 62.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.3%. It rests on 189 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 38.0%, draws 8.5% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 192 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 43.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 150 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 27.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 69.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 29.0%. It rests on 101 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 45.6%, draws 1.3% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 118 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 36.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 59.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.8%. It rests on 114 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 42.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 693 Lichess games.

What is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 32.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 61.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.6%. It rests on 362 Lichess games.

Is the Formation: Hippopotamus Attack a good opening?

The Formation: Hippopotamus Attack is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 38.8% of its games and loses 57.3%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.