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Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation

2.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score53.5%Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 55.2%Based on 2.5K games
0%53.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 55.2%
Outcome Distribution
48.8%9.3%41.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.b3
Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation
Analyzen=2.5K
Avg Length41 moves
Sharpness91%
Draw Rate9.3%

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 53.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.9% and 55.2%), based on 2.5K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 88% → 43%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 88.2% win rate (7 games)
  • 1200-1399: 34.9% win rate (20 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.7% win rate (64 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.4% win rate (127 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.4% win rate (398 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.7% win rate (765 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.6% win rate (835 games)
  • 2500+: 42.5% win rate (263 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (50%), worst in Classical (35%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 49.4% win rate (839 games)
  • Blitz: 48.5% win rate (1,456 games)
  • Rapid: 49.6% win rate (167 games)
  • Classical: 35.1% win rate (17 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 37.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (39 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (72 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (118 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (242 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (180 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (514 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (68 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (286 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (507 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (184 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (70 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 50.7% win rate for white (765 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.4%) outperforms Rapid (49.6%) by -0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a sharpness score of 90.7 (decisive), meaning 90.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 42.2%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 127 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 398 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 765 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 44.8%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 835 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 42.5% (90% CI: 37.6%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 263 Lichess games. Average game length is 55 moves with a 29.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 46.6%-52.3%) win rate for white (839 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.6%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 46.3%-50.6%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.4%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 43.2%-55.9%) win rate for white (167 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.