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Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation

10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.2%Range (90% confident): 49.4% – 51.0%Based on 10K games
0%50.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.4% – 51.0%
Outcome Distribution
46.3%7.7%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...c6
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation
Analyzen=10K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate7.7%

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 50.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.4% and 51.0%), based on 10K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +18.2% · Breakpoint: 1400-1599

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 33% → 60%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 33.3% win rate (12 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.8% win rate (13 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.4% win rate (42 games)
  • 1400-1599: 39.9% win rate (95 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.2% win rate (344 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.3% win rate (1,539 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.1% win rate (4,531 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.8% win rate (3,494 games)
  • 2500+: 59.6% win rate (303 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~47%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 46.5% win rate (2,036 games)
  • Blitz: 46.3% win rate (7,648 games)
  • Rapid: 45.6% win rate (655 games)
  • Classical: 46.5% win rate (34 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.8% expected score (52 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (122 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (187 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (246 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (1,147 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (133 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (573 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (3,658 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (287 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (887 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (2,421 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (183 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (152 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (147 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 10K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 59.6% win rate for white (303 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (46.3%) outperforms Rapid (45.6%) by 0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 344 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 41.3%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 43.9%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 59.6% (90% CI: 55.0%-64.2%) win rate for white, based on 303 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.6%-48.3%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.4%-47.2%) win rate for white (7.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 42.4%-48.8%) win rate for white (655 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.