TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation

871K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.7%Range (90% confident): 49.6% – 49.8%Based on 871K games
0%49.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.6% – 49.8%
Outcome Distribution
47.6%4.2%48.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Nc3
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
Analyzen=871K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 49.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.6% and 49.8%), based on 871K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~50%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.8% win rate (5,248 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.8% win rate (17,080 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.9% win rate (42,177 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.2% win rate (95,313 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.9% win rate (179,027 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (241,063 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.9% win rate (192,763 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.0% win rate (88,797 games)
  • 2500+: 51.2% win rate (9,721 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.7% win rate (959 games)
  • Bullet: 47.7% win rate (330,896 games)
  • Blitz: 47.6% win rate (455,980 games)
  • Rapid: 47.5% win rate (80,336 games)
  • Classical: 47.5% win rate (3,018 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (2,435 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (2,369 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (424 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.3% expected score (60 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (8,505 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (7,055 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,441 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.7% expected score (151 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (18,101 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (20,272 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (3,551 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (102 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (310 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (35,303 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (50,788 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (8,617 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (295 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.8% expected score (315 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (60,821 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (98,961 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (18,060 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (870 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (73,540 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (139,090 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (27,177 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (1,200 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (74,460 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (100,398 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (17,420 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (463 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (49,758 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (35,358 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (3,593 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (7,973 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (1,689 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (53 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 871K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (9.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (52.7%) outperforms Classical (47.5%) by 5.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 95K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 179K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 241K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 193K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 89K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 9.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-55.4%) win rate for white (959 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.8%) win rate for white (331K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.7%) win rate for white (456K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.8%) win rate for white (80K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.0%-49.0%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.