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Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation

797K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.1%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.2%Based on 797K games
0%53.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.2%
Outcome Distribution
51.2%3.8%45.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.Nc3
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
Analyzen=797K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 53.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 53.2%), based on 797K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 51% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.6% win rate (29,358 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.4% win rate (50,480 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.3% win rate (82,140 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.7% win rate (123,025 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.5% win rate (160,422 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.8% win rate (159,471 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.1% win rate (116,131 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.9% win rate (65,354 games)
  • 2500+: 53.7% win rate (10,813 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.9% win rate (1,272 games)
  • Bullet: 50.7% win rate (254,188 games)
  • Blitz: 51.3% win rate (424,267 games)
  • Rapid: 51.9% win rate (113,029 games)
  • Classical: 50.7% win rate (4,438 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (39 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (7,336 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (15,402 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (6,511 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.0% expected score (70 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (77 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (14,657 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (25,743 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (9,802 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (201 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (148 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (23,414 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (43,161 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (14,903 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (514 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (309 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (32,704 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (67,969 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (20,985 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (1,058 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (288 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (42,299 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (91,457 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (25,161 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (1,217 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (262 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (46,886 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (89,363 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (21,962 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (998 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.7% expected score (121 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (44,326 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (60,560 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (10,780 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (344 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.6% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (34,554 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (27,899 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (2,845 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (8,012 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (2,713 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.2% expected score (80 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 797K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (55.9%) outperforms Classical (50.7%) by 5.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 82K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 123K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 160K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 159K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 116K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.9%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 55.9% (90% CI: 53.7%-58.2%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.9%) win rate for white (254K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white (424K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.1%) win rate for white (113K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.0%) win rate for white (4.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.