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Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation

1.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.2%Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 50.3%Based on 1.7M games
0%50.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 50.3%
Outcome Distribution
48.2%3.9%47.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Nc3
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
Analyzen=1.7M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 50.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.1% and 50.3%), based on 1.7M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 49% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.6% win rate (9,946 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.2% win rate (36,238 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.6% win rate (91,896 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.0% win rate (203,492 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.7% win rate (379,902 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.9% win rate (489,645 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.5% win rate (311,450 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.6% win rate (118,295 games)
  • 2500+: 51.3% win rate (13,350 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Bullet (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.4% win rate (1,216 games)
  • Bullet: 47.8% win rate (637,283 games)
  • Blitz: 48.4% win rate (857,422 games)
  • Rapid: 48.6% win rate (153,092 games)
  • Classical: 49.2% win rate (5,201 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (4,524 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (4,518 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (864 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 65.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (17,026 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (15,898 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (3,229 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (163 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (40,367 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (42,456 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (8,743 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (378 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (76,019 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (106,825 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (19,556 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (714 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (398 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (126,166 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (214,626 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (36,999 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (1,713 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (137 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (159,415 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (277,009 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (51,106 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (1,978 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.8% expected score (42 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (131,694 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (151,681 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (27,509 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (524 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (71,177 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (42,063 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (4,981 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (10,895 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (2,346 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.8% expected score (105 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.7M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (51.4%) outperforms Bullet (47.8%) by 3.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 92K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 203K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 380K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 490K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 311K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 118K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-53.7%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.7%-47.9%) win rate for white (637K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.5%) win rate for white (857K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.8%) win rate for white (153K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.3%) win rate for white (5.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.