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Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall

3.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.0%Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 51.3%Based on 3.8K games
0%50.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 51.3%
Outcome Distribution
47.6%4.6%47.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.g4
Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall
Analyzen=3.8K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall has a 50.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.6% and 51.3%), based on 3.8K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -0.9% · Breakpoint: 1400-1599

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 33% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 33.3% win rate (15 games)
  • 1000-1199: 75.8% win rate (15 games)
  • 1200-1399: 28.4% win rate (32 games)
  • 1400-1599: 54.9% win rate (85 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.8% win rate (256 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.7% win rate (755 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (1,369 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.8% win rate (1,124 games)
  • 2500+: 51.5% win rate (114 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (73%), worst in Rapid (44%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 48.5% win rate (730 games)
  • Blitz: 47.7% win rate (2,725 games)
  • Rapid: 43.7% win rate (304 games)
  • Classical: 73.3% win rate (6 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 25.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (56 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (61 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (113 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (537 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (103 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (213 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,074 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (81 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (264 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (808 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (57 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (57 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (256 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.7%) outperforms Rapid (43.7%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall?

The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall has a 53.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 256 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall has a 48.7% (90% CI: 45.7%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 755 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall has a 45.9% (90% CI: 43.7%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall has a 46.8% (90% CI: 44.3%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall has a 51.5% (90% CI: 43.9%-59.1%) win rate for white, based on 114 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall has a 48.5% (90% CI: 45.4%-51.5%) win rate for white (730 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-49.3%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall has a 43.7% (90% CI: 39.1%-48.4%) win rate for white (304 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Stonewall is statistically balanced with a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-49.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.