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Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern

3.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.3%Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 56.8%Based on 3.0K games
0%55.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 56.8%
Outcome Distribution
53.5%3.6%42.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.g4
Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern
Analyzen=3.0K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern has a 55.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.8% and 56.8%), based on 3.0K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.3% · Breakpoint: 2200-2499

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 53% → 56%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.9% win rate (7 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.1% win rate (10 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.3% win rate (36 games)
  • 1400-1599: 56.8% win rate (105 games)
  • 1600-1799: 55.6% win rate (357 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.1% win rate (790 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.3% win rate (1,087 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.1% win rate (527 games)
  • 2500+: 56.3% win rate (42 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in Rapid (52%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.5% win rate (620 games)
  • Blitz: 53.9% win rate (1,979 games)
  • Rapid: 52.2% win rate (346 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (16 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (62 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 66.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (76 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (247 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (145 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (527 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (116 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (192 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (760 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (128 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (142 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (340 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 65.7% expected score (24 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 54.3% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (53.9%) outperforms Rapid (52.2%) by 1.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern?

The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern has a 56.8% (90% CI: 48.9%-64.6%) win rate for white, based on 105 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern has a 55.6% (90% CI: 51.3%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 357 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern has a 54.1% (90% CI: 51.2%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 790 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern has a 54.3% (90% CI: 51.9%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern has a 49.1% (90% CI: 45.5%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 527 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern has a 52.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-55.8%) win rate for white (620 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.1%-55.7%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern has a 52.2% (90% CI: 47.8%-56.6%) win rate for white (346 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern is statistically favors white with a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-55.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.