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Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation

308 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score54.5%Range (90% confident): 49.9% – 59.2%Based on 308 games
0%54.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.9% – 59.2%
Outcome Distribution
51.2%6.6%42.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation
n=308
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.6%

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 54.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.9% and 59.2%), based on 308 Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 58%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.4% win rate (9 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.7% win rate (13 games)
  • 1800-1999: 56.6% win rate (70 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.7% win rate (107 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.9% win rate (90 games)
  • 2500+: 57.6% win rate (15 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (52%), worst in Rapid (37%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid

  • Bullet: 50.9% win rate (82 games)
  • Blitz: 51.7% win rate (218 games)
  • Rapid: 36.8% win rate (8 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399———
1400-1599———
1600-1799———
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (50 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (83 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (67 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 308 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 56.6% win rate for white (70 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.7%) outperforms Bullet (50.9%) by 0.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 93.4 (decisive), meaning 93.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 36.9%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 107 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 10.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-57.2%) win rate for white (218 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation is statistically balanced with a 51.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-55.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.